[
  {
    "id": "tariff-revenue-replaces-income-tax",
    "title": "Tariff revenue would let us cut or eliminate the income tax",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] With tariff revenue, we may be able to substantially reduce or even eliminate the federal income tax for many Americans.",
    "date_promised": "2025-01-05",
    "venue": "Post on X, repeated in 2025 remarks about an 'External Revenue Service'",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "taxes",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "Tariffs never came close to replacing income tax revenue: collections ran about $154.5 billion in the first ten months of fiscal 2026 against roughly $2.4 trillion in individual income taxes. The Supreme Court then struck down the IEEPA tariffs on Feb. 20, 2026, halting collection and triggering an estimated $175–$200 billion in refunds. No income tax was eliminated.",
    "repeat_count": 8,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump's Economic Promises Timeline",
        "outlet": "Office of Rep. Lloyd Doggett",
        "url": "https://doggett.house.gov/issues/trumps-economic-promises-timeline",
        "date": "2025-02-01"
      },
      {
        "title": "Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: IEEPA Revenue and Potential Refunds",
        "outlet": "Penn Wharton Budget Model",
        "url": "https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-02-20-supreme-court-tariff-ruling/",
        "date": "2026-02-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump promised $5,000 checks if Republicans win the midterms. How would that work?",
        "outlet": "PBS NewsHour",
        "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-promised-5000-checks-if-republicans-win-the-midterms-how-would-that-work",
        "date": "2026-09-11"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "tiktok-day-one-and-four-extensions",
    "title": "Saving TikTok on day one — then four rolling extensions",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] I'm going to save TikTok. We'll issue an executive order on day one.",
    "date_promised": "2025-01-20",
    "venue": "Inauguration day executive order directing non-enforcement of the divest-or-ban law",
    "deadline_text": "75 days",
    "deadline_days": 75,
    "category": "other",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "late",
    "what_happened": "Four consecutive enforcement delays followed: January 20, 2025 (75 days), April 4, 2025 (75 days), June 19, 2025 (90 days) and September 2025 (to December 16, 2025). Asked in mid-2025 who the buyer was, Trump said 'I'll tell you in about two weeks.' A framework was signed off on September 25, 2025 and the deal finally closed on January 22, 2026 — about a year and four extensions after day one.",
    "repeat_count": 5,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Further Extending the TikTok Enforcement Delay",
        "outlet": "The White House",
        "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/further-extending-the-tiktok-enforcement-delay-9dde/",
        "date": "2025-09-16"
      },
      {
        "title": "US extends TikTok sale deadline by another 90 days",
        "outlet": "Al Jazeera",
        "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/6/19/us-extends-tiktok-sale-deadline-by-another-90-days",
        "date": "2025-06-19"
      },
      {
        "title": "TikTok Ban Timeline: How Trump Keeps Pushing the Deadline",
        "outlet": "No Labels",
        "url": "https://nolabels.org/the-latest/tiktok-ban-timeline-how-trump-keeps-pushing-the-deadline/",
        "date": "2025-09-17"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "tariffs-paid-by-foreign-countries",
    "title": "Tariffs will be paid by foreign countries, not Americans",
    "quote": "Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens.",
    "date_promised": "2025-01-20",
    "venue": "Inaugural address, U.S. Capitol",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "trade",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "Importers and consumers, not foreign governments, paid. The Yale Budget Lab estimated the tariffs cost the average U.S. household about $1,700 a year; inflation rose after the April 2025 announcement and consumer confidence fell for five straight months. On Feb. 20, 2026 the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, voiding the centerpiece of the program and forcing an estimated $175–$200 billion in refunds to the importers who had in fact paid.",
    "repeat_count": 30,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Tracking Trump's first year promises",
        "outlet": "MS NOW",
        "url": "https://www.ms.now/news/tracking-trumps-first-year-promises-what-he-delivered-what-he-didnt",
        "date": "2026-01-05"
      },
      {
        "title": "Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs: What Importers Need to Know Now",
        "outlet": "Holland & Knight",
        "url": "https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/02/supreme-court-strikes-down-ieepa-tariffs",
        "date": "2026-02-23"
      },
      {
        "title": "Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: IEEPA Revenue and Potential Refunds",
        "outlet": "Penn Wharton Budget Model",
        "url": "https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2026-02-20-supreme-court-tariff-ruling/",
        "date": "2026-02-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump's Broken Promises on Debt and Manufacturing",
        "outlet": "Steve Rattner / Morning Joe",
        "url": "https://stevenrattner.com/2026/07/trumps-broken-promises-on-debt-and-manufacturing-steve-rattner-on-morning-joe/",
        "date": "2026-07-21"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "no-new-wars-iran",
    "title": "No new wars — then war with Iran",
    "quote": "We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.",
    "date_promised": "2025-01-20",
    "venue": "Inaugural address, U.S. Capitol",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "iran",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "The U.S. went to war with Iran on Feb. 28, 2026 in an operation the Pentagon named Epic Fury. Trump predicted in the first week that it would take 'four to five weeks'; six months later it was still going. Asked about the campaign pledge, he said 'I didn't guarantee no war. I didn't promise anything.' Rep. Adam Smith noted Trump had said specifically, 'If I'm president, we will not go to war with Iran.'",
    "repeat_count": 30,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump says Iran doesn't go against his campaign pledge of no new wars",
        "outlet": "NPR",
        "url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/06/07/g-s1-126826/trump-iran-wars-campaign-message",
        "date": "2026-06-07"
      },
      {
        "title": "The Trump Administration's Middle East Quagmire: Six Months Into the War in Iran",
        "outlet": "Center for American Progress",
        "url": "https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-trump-administrations-middle-east-quagmire-six-months-into-the-war-in-iran/",
        "date": "2026-08-28"
      },
      {
        "title": "2026 Iran war",
        "outlet": "Britannica",
        "url": "https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war",
        "date": "2026-09-01"
      },
      {
        "title": "Pentagon policy chief grilled as Dem claims Trump broke promise about going to war with Iran",
        "outlet": "Fox News",
        "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pentagon-policy-chief-grilled-dem-claims-trump-broke-promise-about-going-war-iran.amp",
        "date": "2026-06-10"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "end-weaponization-of-justice",
    "title": "Never again weaponize the state against political opponents",
    "quote": "Never again will the immense power of the state be weaponized to persecute political opponents.",
    "date_promised": "2025-01-20",
    "venue": "Inaugural address, U.S. Capitol",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "justice",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "Trump publicly demanded charges against named critics; James Comey was indicted Sept. 25, 2025 in the Eastern District of Virginia and New York Attorney General Letitia James was indicted weeks after Trump's Truth Social post naming her. James pleaded not guilty Oct. 24, 2025 and the charges were dismissed without prejudice Nov. 24, 2025. Trump had ousted the U.S. attorney who doubted the cases, told CNN 'there will be others,' and said the prosecutions were 'the opposite' of retribution: 'I've been very mild-mannered.' Chief of Staff Susie Wiles conceded it 'might be retribution.'",
    "repeat_count": 12,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Comey's indictment marks a dramatic escalation in Trump's political retribution efforts",
        "outlet": "NPR",
        "url": "https://www.npr.org/2025/09/27/nx-s1-5554448/comeys-indictment-marks-a-dramatic-escalation-in-trumps-political-retribution-efforts",
        "date": "2025-09-27"
      },
      {
        "title": "These are the people Trump told the Justice Department to prosecute after Comey",
        "outlet": "Axios",
        "url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/09/26/trump-justice-department-prosecute-james-comey-adam-schiff-letitia-james",
        "date": "2025-09-26"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump says indictment of critics is 'opposite' of retribution: 'I've been very mild-mannered'",
        "outlet": "The Hill",
        "url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5585981-trump-indictments-political-rivals/",
        "date": "2025-10-14"
      },
      {
        "title": "Tracking Trump's first year promises: what he delivered, what he didn't",
        "outlet": "MS NOW",
        "url": "https://www.ms.now/news/tracking-trumps-first-year-promises-what-he-delivered-what-he-didnt",
        "date": "2026-01-05"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "drill-baby-drill-lower-prices",
    "title": "'Drill, baby, drill' would cut prices across the board",
    "quote": "We're going to drill, baby, drill... prices will come down, and with everything.",
    "date_promised": "2025-01-20",
    "venue": "Inaugural address and day-one energy emergency executive orders",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "environment",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "Drilling deregulation did not translate into lower consumer prices. A UC Berkeley energy professor called the claim that more extraction would drive down inflation 'a direct falsehood.' By 2026 electricity was up nearly 7% year over year, household power bills rose 6.7% in 2025, and gasoline hit a record $4.15 a gallon over Labor Day 2026.",
    "repeat_count": 30,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "No tariffs on day one, but Trump promises to 'drill, baby, drill'",
        "outlet": "Al Jazeera",
        "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/1/20/no-tariffs-on-day-1-but-trump-promises-to-drill-baby-drill",
        "date": "2025-01-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump unravels US climate agenda as he promises to 'drill, baby, drill'",
        "outlet": "Grist",
        "url": "https://grist.org/politics/trump-climate-actions-day-one-energy-emergency/",
        "date": "2025-01-21"
      },
      {
        "title": "One Year Of Failed Promises",
        "outlet": "Senate Democratic Leadership",
        "url": "https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/one-year-of-failed-promises-how-trumps-policies-are-raising-costs-ripping-away-health-care-and-destroying-the-economy",
        "date": "2026-01-20"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "epstein-client-list-on-my-desk-2025",
    "title": "The Epstein client list 'sitting on my desk right now to review'",
    "quote": "It's sitting on my desk right now to review.",
    "date_promised": "2025-02-21",
    "venue": "Fox News interview with Attorney General Pam Bondi, acting on Trump's release directive",
    "deadline_text": "imminent / within days",
    "deadline_days": 7,
    "category": "transparency",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "Six days later, on February 27, 2025, DOJ staged the white-binder 'Epstein Files: Phase 1' handout to social media influencers on the White House driveway. It contained essentially no new information. Bondi then blamed the FBI's New York field office. A DOJ and FBI memo in July 2025 concluded there was no client list at all.",
    "repeat_count": 4,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Attorney General Pamela Bondi Releases First Phase of Declassified Epstein Files",
        "outlet": "US Department of Justice",
        "url": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/attorney-general-pamela-bondi-releases-first-phase-declassified-epstein-files",
        "date": "2025-02-27"
      },
      {
        "title": "Epstein files",
        "outlet": "Wikipedia",
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epstein_files",
        "date": "2026-09-01"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "no-cuts-to-medicaid",
    "title": "We're not cutting Medicaid",
    "quote": "We're not doing anything with Medicaid... we're not cutting it, we're cutting waste, fraud and abuse.",
    "date_promised": "2025-03-04",
    "venue": "Address to a joint session of Congress, and repeated statements through spring 2025",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "healthcare",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "The One Big Beautiful Bill Act Trump signed July 4, 2025 cut roughly $715–$880 billion from federal health spending over ten years through Medicaid work requirements, more frequent eligibility checks and provider-tax limits. CBO projected roughly 10–17 million more uninsured; ACA marketplace enrollment fell 1.4 million (24.2M to 22.8M) by early 2026. Reporting indicated Trump had to be told by a House member that the bill did in fact 'touch Medicaid.'",
    "repeat_count": 12,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Here are the times Trump has said he wouldn't cut Medicaid",
        "outlet": "ABC News",
        "url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-medicaid-republican-bill-cut-benefits/story?id=121756481",
        "date": "2025-05-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "Medicaid cuts in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' will leave millions uninsured, threaten rural hospitals",
        "outlet": "CNBC",
        "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/01/how-trump-bill-medicaid-cuts-will-impact-us-health-care.html",
        "date": "2025-07-01"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump on Fourth of July signs 'One Big Beautiful Bill' to implement his agenda",
        "outlet": "NPR",
        "url": "https://www.npr.org/2025/07/03/nx-s1-5454841/house-republicans-trump-tax-bill-medicaid",
        "date": "2025-07-03"
      },
      {
        "title": "200 Days of Trump: Promises Made, Promises Broken",
        "outlet": "Democratic National Committee",
        "url": "https://democrats.org/news/200-days-of-trump-promises-made-promises-broken/",
        "date": "2025-08-07"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "jfk-files-fully-unredacted",
    "title": "Release all JFK assassination files with no redactions",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] We're releasing all 80,000 pages — no redactions.",
    "date_promised": "2025-03-17",
    "venue": "Remarks at the Kennedy Center, Washington, D.C.",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "transparency",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "partial",
    "what_happened": "The National Archives published just over 60,000 pages on March 18, 2025 — well short of the 80,000 promised — and many documents had been released before with redactions still in place. The dump also exposed hundreds of living people's Social Security numbers, an error the Archives spent weeks remediating. RFK and MLK records followed in April-July 2025, the MLK release over the King family's objection.",
    "repeat_count": 6,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Orders Declassification of JFK, RFK, and MLK Assassination Files",
        "outlet": "The White House",
        "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-orders-declassification-of-jfk-rfk-and-mlk-assassination-files/",
        "date": "2025-01-23"
      },
      {
        "title": "Hundreds Of Social Security Numbers Made Public In Unredacted JFK Files",
        "outlet": "Forbes",
        "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/03/20/hundreds-of-social-security-numbers-made-public-in-unredacted-jfk-files/",
        "date": "2025-03-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump admin releases MLK files despite King family's objection",
        "outlet": "Axios",
        "url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/07/21/martin-luther-king-jr-files-fbi-trump",
        "date": "2025-07-21"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "autism-cause-by-september-2025",
    "title": "'By September, we will know what has caused the autism epidemic'",
    "quote": "By September, we will know what has caused the autism epidemic and we'll be able to eliminate those exposures.",
    "date_promised": "2025-04",
    "venue": "Cabinet meeting at the White House, said by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with Trump present and repeatedly endorsed by Trump",
    "deadline_text": "by September",
    "deadline_days": 150,
    "category": "healthcare",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "never-delivered",
    "what_happened": "On September 22, 2025 Trump and Kennedy held a White House event announcing not a cause but a claimed association, with Trump telling pregnant women 'don't take Tylenol.' Major medical groups pushed back hard. By October 29, 2025 Kennedy himself conceded the evidence 'is not sufficient to say it definitely causes autism.' No cause of the autism epidemic was identified.",
    "repeat_count": 3,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "President Trump, Secretary Kennedy Announce Bold Actions to Tackle Autism Epidemic",
        "outlet": "HHS.gov",
        "url": "https://www.hhs.gov/press-room/hhs-trump-kennedy-autism-initiatives-leucovorin-tylenol-research-2025.html",
        "date": "2025-09-22"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump administration set to tie Tylenol to autism risk, officials say",
        "outlet": "Washington Post",
        "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/09/21/trump-autism-announcement-tylenol-leucovorin/",
        "date": "2025-09-21"
      },
      {
        "title": "RFK Jr walks back Trump administration's claims linking Tylenol and autism",
        "outlet": "Al Jazeera",
        "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/29/rfk-jr-walks-back-trump-administrations-claims-linking-tylenol-and-autism",
        "date": "2025-10-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "support-student-loan-borrowers",
    "title": "Student borrowers will be 'fully supported' in repaying loans",
    "quote": "borrowers are paying back their loans, that they are fully supported in doing so.",
    "date_promised": "2025-04",
    "venue": "Department of Education statement announcing the return to collections",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "education",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "Collections restarted and support collapsed. Protect Borrowers found 3.6 million borrowers defaulted between January 2025 and early 2026, bringing the national total in default to about 9 million, after the SAVE repayment plan was terminated and servicing backlogs mounted. Wage garnishment and Social Security offsets resumed for defaulted borrowers.",
    "repeat_count": 2,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "President Trump's Broken Promises and the State of Americans' Ballooning Debts as President Trump Talks Affordability in the State of the Union",
        "outlet": "Protect Borrowers",
        "url": "https://protectborrowers.org/president-trumps-broken-promises-debt-affordability-sotu/",
        "date": "2026-02-01"
      },
      {
        "title": "Warren Releases New Report Detailing President Trump's Broken Promises on Affordability",
        "outlet": "U.S. Senate Banking Committee (Minority)",
        "url": "https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/warren-releases-new-report-detailing-president-trumps-broken-promises-on-affordability",
        "date": "2026-01-30"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "manufacturing-boom-factories-roaring-back",
    "title": "Jobs and factories will come roaring back",
    "quote": "Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country.",
    "date_promised": "2025-04-02",
    "venue": "'Liberation Day' Rose Garden tariff announcement, White House",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "economy",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "Manufacturing employment fell every month from April 2025. The Joint Economic Committee found 108,000 manufacturing jobs lost in Trump's first year; BLS data showed 89,000 lost between April 2025 and February 2026 and roughly 75,000 fewer than at inauguration by mid-2026. Construction spending on factories dropped about 30%, from $250 billion annualized in November 2024 to $175 billion by May 2026. Growth was flat from March 2026 onward.",
    "repeat_count": 20,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "NEW DATA: During Trump's First Year, the Manufacturing Industry Lost 108,000 Jobs",
        "outlet": "U.S. Joint Economic Committee (Democrats)",
        "url": "https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/2026/2/new-data-during-trump-s-first-year-the-manufacturing-industry-lost-108-000-jobs",
        "date": "2026-02-06"
      },
      {
        "title": "On 'Liberation Day,' Trump promised a manufacturing boom. The data tell a different story.",
        "outlet": "Reason",
        "url": "https://reason.com/2026/04/02/on-liberation-day-trump-promised-a-manufacturing-boom-the-data-tell-a-different-story/",
        "date": "2026-04-02"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump's promised manufacturing boom is a bust so far",
        "outlet": "The Washington Post",
        "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/01/15/trump-manufacturing-jobs-tariffs/",
        "date": "2026-01-15"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump Administration Promised a Manufacturing Revival in 2026. Just Released First-Half Data Show It Isn't Happening",
        "outlet": "American Economic Liberties Project",
        "url": "https://www.economicliberties.us/press-release/trump-administration-promised-a-manufacturing-revival-in-2026-just-released-first-half-data-show-it-isnt-happening/",
        "date": "2026-08-01"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "ninety-deals-in-ninety-days-2025",
    "title": "'90 deals in 90 days'",
    "quote": "We're going to run 90 deals in 90 days.",
    "date_promised": "2025-04-12",
    "venue": "Fox Business interview with White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, days after the 'Liberation Day' tariff pause",
    "deadline_text": "90 days",
    "deadline_days": 90,
    "category": "trade",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "At day 76 there were two framework deals, with the UK and China, neither a full trade agreement. When the 90 days expired in early July 2025 the tally was still two, about 2% of the promise, and Trump extended the negotiating deadline into August. The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February 2026 and by September 2026 the administration had paid out roughly $100 billion in tariff refunds.",
    "repeat_count": 2,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Navarro says Trump has '90 deals in 90 days possibly pending here'",
        "outlet": "The Hill",
        "url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5246773-navarro-trump-90-deals-90-days/",
        "date": "2025-04-12"
      },
      {
        "title": "90 deals in 90 days? Trump's trade war is failing on its own terms",
        "outlet": "Reason",
        "url": "https://reason.com/2025/06/27/90-deals-in-90-days-trumps-trade-war-is-failing-on-its-own-terms/",
        "date": "2025-06-27"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump's tariff blitz produces few trade deals but lots of uncertainty",
        "outlet": "PBS NewsHour",
        "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trumps-tariff-blitz-produces-few-trade-deals-but-lots-of-uncertainty",
        "date": "2025-07-08"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "tariff-rates-two-three-weeks-2025",
    "title": "Setting tariff numbers 'over the next two, three weeks'",
    "quote": "Over the next two, three weeks. We'll be setting the number.",
    "date_promised": "2025-04-23",
    "venue": "Oval Office remarks to reporters",
    "deadline_text": "over the next two, three weeks",
    "deadline_days": 18,
    "category": "trade",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "The promised schedule of country-by-country tariff numbers did not arrive on that timetable. Trump returned to the same formula on June 12, 2025, saying letters setting unilateral rates would go out 'in about a week and a half, two weeks.' Letters began going out in July 2025, months after the original deadline.",
    "repeat_count": 3,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Two weeks' notice: Trump's deadline on Iran is a familiar one",
        "outlet": "NBC News",
        "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/two-weeks-notice-trumps-deadline-iran-familiar-one-rcna214089",
        "date": "2025-06-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump is no stranger to setting 2-week deadlines. Here's how others have played out",
        "outlet": "NPR",
        "url": "https://www.npr.org/2025/06/20/nx-s1-5440143/trump-two-weeks-deadline-pattern",
        "date": "2025-06-20"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "ukraine-aid-ask-in-two-weeks-2025",
    "title": "'You can ask that question in two weeks' on military aid to Ukraine",
    "quote": "You can ask that question in two weeks, and we'll see.",
    "date_promised": "2025-04-24",
    "venue": "Oval Office meeting with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store",
    "deadline_text": "in two weeks",
    "deadline_days": 14,
    "category": "ukraine",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "never-delivered",
    "what_happened": "Asked whether US military assistance to Ukraine would continue, Trump deferred by two weeks. No answer came at the two-week mark. He used variations of the same deflection on April 27, May 19 and May 28, 2025.",
    "repeat_count": 4,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump is no stranger to setting 2-week deadlines. Here's how others have played out",
        "outlet": "NPR",
        "url": "https://www.npr.org/2025/06/20/nx-s1-5440143/trump-two-weeks-deadline-pattern",
        "date": "2025-06-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "Two weeks' notice: Trump's deadline on Iran is a familiar one",
        "outlet": "NBC News",
        "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/two-weeks-notice-trumps-deadline-iran-familiar-one-rcna214089",
        "date": "2025-06-20"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "putin-serious-two-weeks-april-2025",
    "title": "First 'two weeks' deadline on whether Putin is serious about peace",
    "quote": "We'll let you know in about two weeks.",
    "date_promised": "2025-04-27",
    "venue": "Remarks to reporters",
    "deadline_text": "in about two weeks",
    "deadline_days": 14,
    "category": "ukraine",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "never-delivered",
    "what_happened": "This was the first of at least three consecutive two-week deadlines Trump set in the spring of 2025 on whether Putin was negotiating in good faith. He reset the clock on May 19 and again on May 28 without ever announcing a verdict, then moved to a 50-day ultimatum in July 2025 which he cut to 10-12 days on July 28, 2025.",
    "repeat_count": 3,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Two weeks' notice: Trump's deadline on Iran is a familiar one",
        "outlet": "NBC News",
        "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/two-weeks-notice-trumps-deadline-iran-familiar-one-rcna214089",
        "date": "2025-06-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump gives Russia its third two-week deadline",
        "outlet": "Crooks and Liars",
        "url": "https://crooksandliars.com/2025/05/trump-gives-russia-its-third-two-week",
        "date": "2025-05-29"
      },
      {
        "title": "President Trump's timeline for things seems to almost always be 'in two weeks'",
        "outlet": "CNN",
        "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/29/politics/video/president-trump-two-week-timeline-war-in-ukraine-vrtc",
        "date": "2025-05-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "largest-wealth-transfer-not-working-people",
    "title": "The tax bill would be for working people, not the wealthy",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] This bill is for the workers — the rich will not benefit.",
    "date_promised": "2025-05",
    "venue": "Remarks promoting the One Big Beautiful Bill Act",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "taxes",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "The DNC's 200-day review characterized the law as the largest upward wealth transfer in more than 40 years, pairing permanent high-end and business tax cuts with roughly $1 trillion in health and nutrition program reductions, and adding over $3 trillion to the debt over a decade. The tips, overtime and senior deductions aimed at workers all expire after 2028 while the business provisions do not.",
    "repeat_count": 10,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "200 Days of Trump: Promises Made, Promises Broken",
        "outlet": "Democratic National Committee",
        "url": "https://democrats.org/news/200-days-of-trump-promises-made-promises-broken/",
        "date": "2025-08-07"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump's health care plan for 2026: Pay even more, get even less. Unless you're a billionaire.",
        "outlet": "InsuranceNewsNet",
        "url": "https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/trumps-health-care-plan-for-2026-pay-even-more-get-even-less-unless-youre-a-billionaire-2",
        "date": "2026-01-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump's Broken Promises on Debt and Manufacturing",
        "outlet": "Steve Rattner / Morning Joe",
        "url": "https://stevenrattner.com/2026/07/trumps-broken-promises-on-debt-and-manufacturing-steve-rattner-on-morning-joe/",
        "date": "2026-07-21"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "china-trade-deal-two-weeks-2025",
    "title": "China trade deal 'in the next two weeks or three weeks'",
    "quote": "In the next two weeks or three weeks, I'm gonna be setting the deal.",
    "date_promised": "2025-05-04",
    "venue": "Air Force One, remarks to travelling press",
    "deadline_text": "in the next two weeks or three weeks",
    "deadline_days": 18,
    "category": "trade",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "partial",
    "what_happened": "A 90-day tariff truce with China was announced after Geneva talks on May 12, 2025, but the comprehensive 'deal' Trump described did not materialise on that timetable; talks and truce extensions continued through 2025. Trade adviser Peter Navarro's companion boast of '90 deals in 90 days' also fell far short.",
    "repeat_count": 2,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Two weeks' notice: Trump's deadline on Iran is a familiar one",
        "outlet": "NBC News",
        "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/two-weeks-notice-trumps-deadline-iran-familiar-one-rcna214089",
        "date": "2025-06-20"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "pharma-tariffs-two-weeks-2025",
    "title": "Pharmaceutical tariff decision 'over the next two weeks'",
    "quote": "I'll announce it over the next two weeks.",
    "date_promised": "2025-05-05",
    "venue": "Oval Office remarks to reporters",
    "deadline_text": "over the next two weeks",
    "deadline_days": 14,
    "category": "trade",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "late",
    "what_happened": "No pharmaceutical tariff rate was announced within the two weeks. Trump kept promising pharma tariffs through the summer of 2025 before announcing a 100% tariff on branded imported drugs in late September 2025, nearly five months after the deadline he set.",
    "repeat_count": 3,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump is no stranger to setting 2-week deadlines. Here's how others have played out",
        "outlet": "NPR",
        "url": "https://www.npr.org/2025/06/20/nx-s1-5440143/trump-two-weeks-deadline-pattern",
        "date": "2025-06-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "Two weeks' notice: Trump's deadline on Iran is a familiar one",
        "outlet": "NBC News",
        "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/two-weeks-notice-trumps-deadline-iran-familiar-one-rcna214089",
        "date": "2025-06-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "A Pivotal Week for Pharmaceutical Policy: Trump Administration Advances Tariff and Drug Pricing Initiatives",
        "outlet": "Mintz",
        "url": "https://www.mintz.com/insights-center/viewpoints/2146/2025-10-07-pivotal-week-pharmaceutical-policy-trump-administration",
        "date": "2025-10-07"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "trumprx-lowest-drug-prices-in-world",
    "title": "Americans will pay the lowest drug prices in the world",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] We will pay the same price as the nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the world.",
    "date_promised": "2025-05-12",
    "venue": "White House 'most favored nation' drug pricing executive order signing",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "healthcare",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "partial",
    "what_happened": "Real progress fell short of the pledge. By September 2026 the administration had signed 26 manufacturers covering about 90% of the branded market and extended MFN pricing to all 50 state Medicaid programs. But NPR reported on Sept. 17, 2026 that the TrumpRx consumer website lists a limited set of drugs, that most consumers still do better paying an insurance copay, and that U.S. prices on TrumpRx remain well above what consumers abroad pay — so the 'lowest price in the world' promise is not met for ordinary patients.",
    "repeat_count": 12,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Did Trump lower Medicaid drug prices, as promised?",
        "outlet": "NPR",
        "url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/09/17/nx-s1-5971066/trump-rx-medicaid-generous-drug-prices-pfizer-favored-nation",
        "date": "2026-09-17"
      },
      {
        "title": "What Trump's Most-Favored-Nation Deal Means for Drug Prices",
        "outlet": "TIME",
        "url": "https://time.com/article/2026/09/01/what-trump-most-favored-nation-deal-means-for-drug-prices/",
        "date": "2026-09-01"
      },
      {
        "title": "President Trump Extends Most Favored Nation Drug Pricing to Every Medicaid Program in America",
        "outlet": "The White House",
        "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/09/president-trump-extends-most-favored-nation-pricing-to-every-medicaid-program-in-america/",
        "date": "2026-09-16"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "golden-dome-sixty-day-plan",
    "title": "'Golden Dome' plans in 60 days, operational in three years",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] Golden Dome will cost about $175 billion and be fully operational within three years — before the end of my term.",
    "date_promised": "2025-05-20",
    "venue": "Oval Office announcement naming Gen. Michael Guetlein to lead the programme",
    "deadline_text": "60 days for the plan (January 2025 executive order); 'two and a half to three years' to operate",
    "deadline_days": 60,
    "category": "foreign-policy",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "still-waiting",
    "what_happened": "The originating January 27, 2025 executive order gave Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth 60 days to present an architecture. Congressional Budget Office estimates put the true cost far above $175 billion and the timeline far beyond three years. No operational system exists as of September 2026.",
    "repeat_count": 2,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump announces 'Golden Dome' missile defense: three years, $175B",
        "outlet": "The Hill",
        "url": "https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5310368-trump-announces-golden-dome-missile-defense/",
        "date": "2025-05-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump: Golden Dome will cost around $175B, be 'fully operational' in three years",
        "outlet": "DefenseScoop",
        "url": "https://defensescoop.com/2025/05/20/trump-golden-dome-cost-175-billion-fully-operational-three-years/",
        "date": "2025-05-20"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "putin-tapping-us-along-may-2025",
    "title": "'We're going to find out whether or not he's tapping us along' — two weeks",
    "quote": "I'll let you know in about two weeks, within two weeks... We're going to find out whether or not he's tapping us along or not, and if he is we'll respond a little bit differently.",
    "date_promised": "2025-05-28",
    "venue": "Oval Office remarks to reporters",
    "deadline_text": "within two weeks",
    "deadline_days": 14,
    "category": "ukraine",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "never-delivered",
    "what_happened": "This was the third consecutive two-week deadline on Putin in about a month, and became the most-cited example of the pattern. The two weeks expired around June 11, 2025 with no verdict and no new response. Trump instead issued a 50-day ultimatum on July 14, 2025, then shortened it to 10-12 days on July 28. Russia's war continued.",
    "repeat_count": 3,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump claims he'll know in '2 weeks' if Putin is 'tapping' US along",
        "outlet": "ABC News",
        "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/International/video/trump-claims-hell-2-weeks-putin-tapping-us-122276987",
        "date": "2025-05-28"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump could inflict pain on Putin in the absence of peace progress. Here's how.",
        "outlet": "NBC News",
        "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/world/russia/trump-putin-warning-two-weeks-sanctions-military-oil-economic-ukraine-rcna209468",
        "date": "2025-05-29"
      },
      {
        "title": "Analysis: Why Trump's new deadline for Russia deserves skepticism",
        "outlet": "CNN",
        "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/28/politics/deadline-russia-ukraine-trump",
        "date": "2025-07-28"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "tiktok-buyer-two-weeks-2025",
    "title": "Naming the TikTok buyer 'in about two weeks'",
    "quote": "I'll tell you in about two weeks.",
    "date_promised": "2025-06",
    "venue": "Fox News interview, asked who the buyer for TikTok was",
    "deadline_text": "in about two weeks",
    "deadline_days": 14,
    "category": "other",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "late",
    "what_happened": "No buyer was named within two weeks. The divest-or-ban deadline was extended repeatedly through 2025 by executive order. A framework deal involving a US joint venture was only announced in late September 2025, roughly three months after the two-week promise.",
    "repeat_count": 2,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump is no stranger to setting 2-week deadlines. Here's how others have played out",
        "outlet": "NPR",
        "url": "https://www.npr.org/2025/06/20/nx-s1-5440143/trump-two-weeks-deadline-pattern",
        "date": "2025-06-20"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "tariff-letters-week-and-a-half-2025",
    "title": "Letters setting unilateral tariff rates 'in about a week and a half, two weeks'",
    "quote": "We're going to be sending letters out in about a week and a half, two weeks, to countries, telling them what the deal is.",
    "date_promised": "2025-06-12",
    "venue": "Remarks to reporters",
    "deadline_text": "in about a week and a half, two weeks",
    "deadline_days": 12,
    "category": "trade",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "late",
    "what_happened": "The letters did not go out on that schedule. The first batch of tariff letters to trading partners was sent in early July 2025, roughly two weeks past the outer edge of the window, and the rates in them were repeatedly revised afterwards.",
    "repeat_count": 2,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump is no stranger to setting 2-week deadlines. Here's how others have played out",
        "outlet": "NPR",
        "url": "https://www.npr.org/2025/06/20/nx-s1-5440143/trump-two-weeks-deadline-pattern",
        "date": "2025-06-20"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "iran-decision-two-weeks-2025",
    "title": "Decision on striking Iran 'within the next two weeks'",
    "quote": "Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.",
    "date_promised": "2025-06-19",
    "venue": "Statement read by press secretary Karoline Leavitt at the White House briefing",
    "deadline_text": "within the next two weeks",
    "deadline_days": 14,
    "category": "iran",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "The two-week window turned out to be misdirection in the other direction: US B-2 bombers struck Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on June 21-22, 2025 — two days later, not two weeks. The episode triggered the June 2025 wave of 'two weeks' supercuts on CNN, NBC and late-night television.",
    "repeat_count": 1,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump is no stranger to setting 2-week deadlines. Here's how others have played out",
        "outlet": "NPR",
        "url": "https://www.npr.org/2025/06/20/nx-s1-5440143/trump-two-weeks-deadline-pattern",
        "date": "2025-06-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "Two weeks' notice: Trump's deadline on Iran is a familiar one",
        "outlet": "NBC News",
        "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/two-weeks-notice-trumps-deadline-iran-familiar-one-rcna214089",
        "date": "2025-06-20"
      },
      {
        "title": "Late-Night Hosts Have Fun With Trump's Favorite Measure Of Time: 'Two Weeks'",
        "outlet": "Deadline",
        "url": "https://deadline.com/2025/06/donald-trump-two-weeks-late-night-1236438473/",
        "date": "2025-06-21"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump to decide on Iran action within two weeks, White House says",
        "outlet": "Axios",
        "url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/06/19/trump-iran-strike-two-weeks-israel",
        "date": "2025-06-19"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump to decide whether US will strike Iran 'within next two weeks'",
        "outlet": "Al Jazeera",
        "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/19/trump-to-decide-whether-us-will-strike-iran-within-two-weeks",
        "date": "2025-06-19"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "epstein-grand-jury-tomorrow-2025",
    "title": "Epstein grand jury testimony: 'ready to move the court tomorrow'",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] Trump: I have asked the Attorney General to produce any and all pertinent Grand Jury testimony. Bondi: We are ready to move the court tomorrow.",
    "date_promised": "2025-07-17",
    "venue": "Truth Social post by Trump and a reply on X from Attorney General Pam Bondi",
    "deadline_text": "tomorrow",
    "deadline_days": 1,
    "category": "transparency",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "DOJ did file quickly, but federal judges denied the unsealing requests between July 23 and August 11, 2025, with at least one judge finding the administration's stated premise 'demonstrably false.' Essentially nothing new was produced by that route, and the move was widely read as damage control after the July 6 memo saying there was no client list.",
    "repeat_count": 2,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Epstein files",
        "outlet": "Wikipedia",
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epstein_files",
        "date": "2026-09-01"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "russia-ultimatum-10-12-days-2025",
    "title": "Ultimatum to Putin cut from 50 days to '10 or 12 days'",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] I'm going to reduce that 50 days that I gave him to a lesser number... about 10 or 12 days from today.",
    "date_promised": "2025-07-28",
    "venue": "Remarks alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Turnberry, Scotland",
    "deadline_text": "10 or 12 days",
    "deadline_days": 11,
    "category": "ukraine",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "Trump had given Russia 50 days on July 14, 2025 to reach a deal or face 'severe' secondary tariffs, then shortened it to 10-12 days on July 28. The shortened deadline expired around August 8, 2025 with no comprehensive sanctions regime imposed on Russia itself; instead Trump met Putin in Alaska on August 15, 2025. CNN's analysis at the time noted the new deadline deserved skepticism given the string of expired two-week deadlines before it.",
    "repeat_count": 2,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Analysis: Why Trump's new deadline for Russia deserves skepticism",
        "outlet": "CNN",
        "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/28/politics/deadline-russia-ukraine-trump",
        "date": "2025-07-28"
      },
      {
        "title": "2025 Russia–United States summit",
        "outlet": "Wikipedia",
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Russia%E2%80%93United_States_summit",
        "date": "2025-08-15"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump shortens Russia's peace deal deadline from 50 to '10 or 12 days'",
        "outlet": "Euronews",
        "url": "https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/07/28/trump-says-hes-reducing-50-day-deadline-for-putin-to-agree-to-peace-in-ukraine",
        "date": "2025-07-28"
      },
      {
        "title": "Donald Trump's 50-Day Deadline to Russia Expires",
        "outlet": "Newsweek",
        "url": "https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-50-day-deadline-russia-expires-2123116",
        "date": "2025-09-01"
      },
      {
        "title": "Putin Keeps Violating Trump's 'Peace' Deadlines But Has Faced No Consequences",
        "outlet": "HuffPost",
        "url": "https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-putin-two-weeks_n_68b75ec2e4b0735128b89a7b",
        "date": "2025-09-02"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "putin-two-weeks-post-alaska-2025",
    "title": "After the Alaska summit: 'two weeks or three weeks or something'",
    "quote": "I may have to think about it in two weeks or three weeks or something.",
    "date_promised": "2025-08-15",
    "venue": "Post-summit remarks after meeting Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Anchorage",
    "deadline_text": "in two weeks or three weeks",
    "deadline_days": 14,
    "category": "ukraine",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "never-delivered",
    "what_happened": "The Anchorage summit produced no ceasefire and no new sanctions after roughly three hours of talks. Nothing followed inside the window Trump named, and Russia escalated strikes on Ukrainian cities through late August 2025.",
    "repeat_count": 3,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Putin Keeps Violating Trump's 'Peace' Deadlines But Has Faced No Consequences",
        "outlet": "HuffPost",
        "url": "https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-putin-two-weeks_n_68b75ec2e4b0735128b89a7b",
        "date": "2025-09-02"
      },
      {
        "title": "2025 Russia–United States summit",
        "outlet": "Wikipedia",
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Russia%E2%80%93United_States_summit",
        "date": "2025-08-15"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "putin-which-way-two-weeks-aug-2025",
    "title": "'Over the next two weeks we're going to find out which way it's going to go'",
    "quote": "I think over the next two weeks we're going to find out which way it's going to go.",
    "date_promised": "2025-08-22",
    "venue": "Remarks to reporters at the White House",
    "deadline_text": "over the next two weeks",
    "deadline_days": 14,
    "category": "ukraine",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "never-delivered",
    "what_happened": "The deadline passed with no announced determination and no consequence for Moscow. It was at least the fifth two-week Ukraine deadline of 2025. By late September 2025 the Washington Post was counting 21 weeks since Trump first gave Putin two weeks.",
    "repeat_count": 5,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Putin Keeps Violating Trump's 'Peace' Deadlines But Has Faced No Consequences",
        "outlet": "HuffPost",
        "url": "https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-putin-two-weeks_n_68b75ec2e4b0735128b89a7b",
        "date": "2025-09-02"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "putin-step-in-very-strongly-2025",
    "title": "'Over the next week or two... at that point, I'll step in very strongly'",
    "quote": "We'll see what happens over the next week or two. And at that point, I'll step in very strongly.",
    "date_promised": "2025-08-25",
    "venue": "Remarks to reporters at the White House",
    "deadline_text": "over the next week or two",
    "deadline_days": 14,
    "category": "ukraine",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "never-delivered",
    "what_happened": "No intervention followed in the stated window. Through September 2025 there were no new US sanctions on Russia tied to the threat, and HuffPost catalogued the run of expired deadlines under the headline that Putin had faced no consequences.",
    "repeat_count": 6,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Putin Keeps Violating Trump's 'Peace' Deadlines But Has Faced No Consequences",
        "outlet": "HuffPost",
        "url": "https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-putin-two-weeks_n_68b75ec2e4b0735128b89a7b",
        "date": "2025-09-02"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "gaza-lasting-peace",
    "title": "A lasting peace in Gaza under the 20-point plan",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] This is the dawn of a new Middle East — the war in Gaza is over.",
    "date_promised": "2025-09-29",
    "venue": "White House announcement of the 20-point Gaza plan with Prime Minister Netanyahu",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "foreign-policy",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "partial",
    "what_happened": "The ceasefire took effect Oct. 10, 2025 and produced a hostage exchange and an aid surge, but J Street's six-month review found the plan 'largely stalled on all its promises' beyond that. More than 700 Palestinians and four Israelis were killed after the ceasefire began. Phase two was declared in January 2026 before phase one was complete; NPR reported in March 2026 that the plan had stalled as the Iran war ground on, Israel escalated attacks in August 2026 in defiance of the plan, and the U.S. official leading the effort publicly criticized Israel on Aug. 27, 2026.",
    "repeat_count": 10,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Six Months In: Assessing the Status of the Gaza Ceasefire",
        "outlet": "J Street",
        "url": "https://jstreet.org/six-months-in-assessing-the-status-of-the-gaza-ceasefire/",
        "date": "2026-04-10"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump's peace plan for Gaza stalls as Iran war grinds on",
        "outlet": "NPR",
        "url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/03/12/nx-s1-5745145/trumps-peace-plan-for-gaza-stalls-as-iran-war-grinds-on",
        "date": "2026-03-12"
      },
      {
        "title": "Israel defies Trump's peace plan as it escalates deadly attacks on Gaza",
        "outlet": "Al Jazeera",
        "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/3/israel-defies-trumps-peace-plan-as-it-escalates-deadly-attacks-on-gaza",
        "date": "2026-08-03"
      },
      {
        "title": "Official leading Trump's Gaza ceasefire effort criticizes Israel for its attacks",
        "outlet": "NPR",
        "url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/08/27/g-s1-140400/israel-gaza-ceasefire",
        "date": "2026-08-27"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "gaza-hamas-three-or-four-days-2025",
    "title": "Hamas has 'three or four days' to accept the 20-point plan",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] Hamas has three or four days to respond. Hamas is either going to be doing it or not, and if it's not, it's going to be a very sad end.",
    "date_promised": "2025-09-30",
    "venue": "Remarks to reporters after unveiling the 20-point Gaza plan with Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House; hardened on October 3 to a fixed Sunday 6:00 p.m. ET deadline on Truth Social",
    "deadline_text": "three or four days, then 'Sunday at 6:00 p.m.'",
    "deadline_days": 4,
    "category": "foreign-policy",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "partial",
    "what_happened": "This one largely held. On October 3, 2025, just before the deadline, Hamas agreed to release all remaining hostages and hand Gaza's administration to independent technocrats, while refusing to disarm. Trump accepted, told Israel to stop bombing, and the ceasefire and hostage-release phase proceeded in October 2025. The disarmament and stabilisation-force elements remained unresolved long past the deadline.",
    "repeat_count": 2,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump says Hamas has 'three or four days' to respond to Gaza proposal",
        "outlet": "Al Jazeera",
        "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/30/trump-says-hamas-has-three-or-four-days-to-respond-to-gaza-proposal",
        "date": "2025-09-30"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump issues Sunday ultimatum for Hamas to accept Gaza plan",
        "outlet": "Al Jazeera",
        "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/3/trump-issues-sunday-deadline-for-hamas-to-accept-gaza-peace-proposal",
        "date": "2025-10-03"
      },
      {
        "title": "Read Trump's 20-point proposal to end the war in Gaza",
        "outlet": "PBS NewsHour",
        "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/read-trumps-20-point-proposal-to-end-the-war-in-gaza",
        "date": "2025-09-29"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "budapest-summit-two-weeks-2025",
    "title": "Putin summit in Budapest 'within two weeks'",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] We will meet in Budapest within two weeks to end the war.",
    "date_promised": "2025-10-16",
    "venue": "Announcement after a phone call with Vladimir Putin",
    "deadline_text": "within two weeks",
    "deadline_days": 14,
    "category": "ukraine",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "never-delivered",
    "what_happened": "Six days later, on October 22, 2025, Trump cancelled the summit after Moscow restated maximalist demands that Ukraine cede territory, cut its army and renounce NATO. A preparatory Rubio-Lavrov meeting was postponed indefinitely and the Budapest summit never took place.",
    "repeat_count": 1,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump-Putin Summit in Budapest Is Canceled",
        "outlet": "Democracy Now!",
        "url": "https://www.democracynow.org/2025/10/22/headlines/trump_putin_summit_in_budapest_is_canceled",
        "date": "2025-10-22"
      },
      {
        "title": "Budapest summit postponed as Putin rejects Trump's ceasefire proposal",
        "outlet": "Atlantic Council",
        "url": "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/budapest-summit-postponed-as-putin-rejects-trumps-ceasefire-proposal/",
        "date": "2025-10-23"
      },
      {
        "title": "US Scrapped Trump-Putin Budapest Summit After Moscow's Hardline Demands on Ukraine",
        "outlet": "The Moscow Times",
        "url": "https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/10/31/us-scrapped-trump-putin-budapest-summit-after-moscows-hardline-demands-on-ukraine-ft-a91001",
        "date": "2025-10-31"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "great-healthcare-plan-delayed-2026",
    "title": "'Two weeks forever': the second-term health plan, delayed then thin",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] The health care plan will be unveiled Monday.",
    "date_promised": "2025-11",
    "venue": "Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the plan would be revealed that week; the Monday rollout was then scrapped",
    "deadline_text": "Monday / days away",
    "deadline_days": 4,
    "category": "healthcare",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "partial",
    "what_happened": "The Monday rollout of the 'Healthcare Price Cuts Act' was scrapped after congressional Republicans revolted at a two-year ACA subsidy extension one lawmaker called 'Obamacare-lite.' 'The Great Healthcare Plan' finally appeared on January 15, 2026 as a legislative framework rather than a bill. Forbes wrote on February 2, 2026 that it 'isn't more than a brief conceptual outline,' echoing his 2024 'concepts of a plan,' and it still requires Congress to act.",
    "repeat_count": 12,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump Delays His Health Care Plan After Revolt From Republicans",
        "outlet": "The New Republic",
        "url": "https://newrepublic.com/post/203622/trump-delays-health-care-plan-revolt-republicans",
        "date": "2025-12-09"
      },
      {
        "title": "White House Releases 'Great Healthcare Plan'",
        "outlet": "Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget",
        "url": "https://www.crfb.org/blogs/white-house-releases-great-healthcare-plan",
        "date": "2026-01-15"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump's 'Great Healthcare Plan' Isn't More Than A Brief Conceptual Outline",
        "outlet": "Forbes",
        "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2026/02/02/trumps-great-healthcare-plan-isnt-more-than-a-brief-conceptual-outline/",
        "date": "2026-02-02"
      },
      {
        "title": "'Two Weeks Forever': Trump's 2020 Health-Care Promise Resurfaces As White House Delays New Proposal",
        "outlet": "IBTimes UK",
        "url": "https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/two-weeks-forever-trumps-2020-healthcare-promise-resurfaces-white-house-delays-new-proposal-1758020",
        "date": "2025-11-25"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "two-thousand-dollar-tariff-dividend",
    "title": "A $2,000 tariff 'dividend' for everyone",
    "quote": "A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.",
    "date_promised": "2025-11-09",
    "venue": "Truth Social post, followed up in remarks the next day",
    "deadline_text": "around mid-2026",
    "deadline_days": 240,
    "category": "economy",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "still-waiting",
    "what_happened": "Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said payments would start around mid-2026, then pushed it to later in 2026. Ten months on, ABC News reported on September 10, 2026 that no checks had gone out. It would require legislation Congress has not moved, economists put the cost near $450 billion, and after the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs in February 2026 the administration paid out roughly $100 billion in refunds to businesses instead. Prediction markets put the odds of a 2026 dividend at 3%.",
    "repeat_count": 3,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump promised $2000 tariff 'dividends,' but they still haven't materialized",
        "outlet": "ABC News",
        "url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/trump-promised-2000-tariff-dividends-materialized-10-months/story?id=136329468",
        "date": "2026-09-10"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump's $2000 tariff dividend checks are less likely, experts say",
        "outlet": "CNBC",
        "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/23/trumps-2000-tariff-dividend-checks-are-less-likely-experts-say.html",
        "date": "2026-02-23"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump promises $2,000 tariff checks by mid-2026",
        "outlet": "Axios",
        "url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/11/17/2000-tariff-dividend-trump-check-2026",
        "date": "2025-11-17"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "epstein-files-30-day-statutory-deadline",
    "title": "The Epstein Files Transparency Act's 30-day release deadline",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] The Justice Department shall publish its Epstein investigative files within 30 days of enactment.",
    "date_promised": "2025-11-19",
    "venue": "Bill signing at the White House, with no reporters present, after Trump reversed course on November 16 and told House Republicans to vote yes",
    "deadline_text": "30 days (statutory, by December 19, 2025)",
    "deadline_days": 30,
    "category": "transparency",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "partial",
    "what_happened": "On December 19, 2025 DOJ made a partial release of roughly 12,285 items and 125,575 pages, heavily redacted, with more than 500 pages entirely blacked out. The bulk slipped to January 30, 2026, when Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche released further data sets and declared 'full compliance' despite DOJ having identified around 6 million responsive pages. On August 13, 2026 a federal judge put DOJ on notice over stalled production, saying of contempt, 'It's not a threat. It's a promise,' and by September 18, 2026 was warning Blanche personally.",
    "repeat_count": 3,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Epstein files",
        "outlet": "Wikipedia",
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epstein_files",
        "date": "2026-09-01"
      },
      {
        "title": "Now that Bondi is out, what does that mean for the Epstein files?",
        "outlet": "WBUR Here & Now",
        "url": "https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2026/04/06/bondi-doj-epstein-files",
        "date": "2026-04-06"
      },
      {
        "title": "What Are the Epstein Files? A Timeline — 2026: Contempt, delays, and more documents",
        "outlet": "Britannica",
        "url": "https://www.britannica.com/topic/The-Epstein-Files-A-Timeline/2026-Contempt-delays-and-more-documents",
        "date": "2026-09-01"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "maduro-one-week-to-leave-2025",
    "title": "Maduro given 'one week' to leave Venezuela",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] You have one week to leave Venezuela with your family, for any destination of your choosing.",
    "date_promised": "2025-11-21",
    "venue": "Private phone call from Trump to Nicolas Maduro, lasting under fifteen minutes, first reported by Reuters",
    "deadline_text": "one week (deadline November 28, 2025)",
    "deadline_days": 7,
    "category": "foreign-policy",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "late",
    "what_happened": "Maduro demanded full amnesty plus sanctions relief for more than 100 officials and Trump refused most of it. The November 28 deadline passed with no departure and no immediate action beyond Trump declaring Venezuelan airspace closed. The resolution came five weeks later: on January 3, 2026 US forces executed Operation Absolute Resolve, striking Venezuela and capturing Maduro and his wife.",
    "repeat_count": 1,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump gave Maduro ultimatum to flee Venezuela as land operations loom: report",
        "outlet": "Fox News",
        "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-gave-maduro-ultimatum-flee-venezuela-land-operations-loom-report",
        "date": "2025-11-24"
      },
      {
        "title": "Alleged US Deadline for Maduro Exit Passes Without Incident",
        "outlet": "Venezuelanalysis",
        "url": "https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/alleged-us-deadline-for-maduro-exit-passes-without-incident/",
        "date": "2025-12-01"
      },
      {
        "title": "Second presidency of Donald Trump",
        "outlet": "Wikipedia",
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump",
        "date": "2026-09-01"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "affordability-won-state-of-the-union",
    "title": "Claimed victory on affordability while costs kept rising",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] We have won the war on affordability — prices are down.",
    "date_promised": "2026-02",
    "venue": "State of the Union address, U.S. Capitol",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "economy",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "Groundwork Collaborative called it a 'state of delusion': at the time of the speech groceries, electricity, rent, medical care and tuition were all above January 2025 levels, ACA premiums had jumped about 18% with subsidized out-of-pocket costs up more than 75%, and households faced roughly $1,300 in added annual costs in 2026. Senate Democrats' companion analysis documented higher prices and fewer jobs.",
    "repeat_count": 6,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "State of Delusion: Trump Claims to Have 'Won' Affordability As Working Families Struggle",
        "outlet": "Groundwork Collaborative",
        "url": "https://groundworkcollaborative.org/news/state-of-delusion-trump-claims-to-have-won-affordability-as-working-families-struggle/",
        "date": "2026-02-01"
      },
      {
        "title": "The True State Of The Union Under Trump: Broken Promises, Higher Prices And Fewer Jobs",
        "outlet": "Senate Democratic Leadership",
        "url": "https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/the-true-state-of-the-union-under-trump-broken-promises-higher-prices-and-fewer-jobs-for-american-families",
        "date": "2026-02-01"
      },
      {
        "title": "Broken Promises? Why US Grocery Prices Are Still Breaking Your Budget",
        "outlet": "Korea Daily (English)",
        "url": "https://en.koreadaily.com/us-grocery-prices-inflation-trump-promises-2026/",
        "date": "2026-03-01"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "hormuz-48-hours-2026",
    "title": "48 hours for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz",
    "quote": "If Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN [the Strait of Hormuz]... the United States will hit and obliterate their POWER PLANTS.",
    "date_promised": "2026-03-21",
    "venue": "Truth Social post during the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury)",
    "deadline_text": "48 hours",
    "deadline_days": 2,
    "category": "iran",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "The 48 hours expired and the strikes were postponed rather than executed. It was the first in a chain of at least six short deadlines Trump set and then let pass during the 2026 Iran war, catalogued by ABC News in May 2026 under the headline 'Trump's series of unenforced deadlines.'",
    "repeat_count": 6,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Iran war: Trump's series of unenforced deadlines",
        "outlet": "ABC News",
        "url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/iran-war-trumps-series-unenforced-deadlines/story?id=133088467",
        "date": "2026-05-18"
      },
      {
        "title": "Timeline of the 2026 Iran war",
        "outlet": "Wikipedia",
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_war",
        "date": "2026-09-01"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "iran-five-day-pause-2026",
    "title": "A five-day pause on strikes that kept getting extended",
    "quote": "I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES.",
    "date_promised": "2026-03-23",
    "venue": "Truth Social post",
    "deadline_text": "a five-day pause",
    "deadline_days": 5,
    "category": "iran",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "late",
    "what_happened": "The pause was extended before it ran out. On March 26, 2026 Trump posted that he was 'pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days,' moving the deadline to April 6, and on April 5 he moved it again to 8:00 p.m. ET on April 7.",
    "repeat_count": 3,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Iran war: Trump's series of unenforced deadlines",
        "outlet": "ABC News",
        "url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/iran-war-trumps-series-unenforced-deadlines/story?id=133088467",
        "date": "2026-05-18"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "iran-war-ends-two-weeks-2026",
    "title": "The 2026 Iran war would be over in 'two weeks, maybe three'",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] The core strategic objectives are nearing completion — we'll be out in two weeks, maybe three.",
    "date_promised": "2026-03-31",
    "venue": "Remarks to reporters ahead of a planned address to the nation",
    "deadline_text": "two weeks, maybe three",
    "deadline_days": 14,
    "category": "iran",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "broken",
    "what_happened": "The war did not end on that timeline. Fighting continued, petrol topped $4 a gallon, and a ceasefire only arrived on April 7, 2026 — itself only two weeks long and then repeatedly re-extended. By June 2026 Trump was touting 'complete victory' while the two-week framing recurred; by August 2026 the US-Iran memorandum of understanding had expired and collapsed, and on August 18, 2026 he was threatening to bomb Oman.",
    "repeat_count": 4,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Iran war: Trump's series of unenforced deadlines",
        "outlet": "ABC News",
        "url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/iran-war-trumps-series-unenforced-deadlines/story?id=133088467",
        "date": "2026-05-18"
      },
      {
        "title": "Timeline of the 2026 Iran war",
        "outlet": "Wikipedia",
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_war",
        "date": "2026-09-01"
      },
      {
        "title": "4 phases of the Iran war: Key moments from start of 'Epic Fury' to 'Project Freedom'",
        "outlet": "ABC News",
        "url": "https://abcnews.com/International/4-phases-iran-war-key-moments-start-epic/story?id=132703824",
        "date": "2026-05-10"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "iran-8pm-ultimatum-two-week-ceasefire-2026",
    "title": "'Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!' — then a two-week ceasefire instead",
    "quote": "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time! [paired with the threat that] a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.",
    "date_promised": "2026-04-05",
    "venue": "Truth Social posts and remarks, setting a hard deadline of 8:00 p.m. ET on April 7, 2026",
    "deadline_text": "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time",
    "deadline_days": 2,
    "category": "iran",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "partial",
    "what_happened": "Hours before the deadline Pakistan's prime minister publicly asked Trump for a two-week extension. Trump said the US was in 'heated negotiations' and then agreed to suspend attacks for two weeks in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz; Iran's Supreme National Security Council accepted and oil posted its biggest one-day drop since 2020. When the two weeks expired around April 21, 2026 Trump extended again and the arrangement became open-ended. On May 18, 2026 he posted that 'we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow.'",
    "repeat_count": 4,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump, Iran agree to two-week ceasefire, plan to open Strait of Hormuz",
        "outlet": "CNBC",
        "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/trump-iran-ceasefire-hormuz-strait.html",
        "date": "2026-04-07"
      },
      {
        "title": "Iran war: Trump's series of unenforced deadlines",
        "outlet": "ABC News",
        "url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/iran-war-trumps-series-unenforced-deadlines/story?id=133088467",
        "date": "2026-05-18"
      },
      {
        "title": "Peace Through Strength: Operation Epic Fury Crushes Iranian Threat as Ceasefire Takes Hold",
        "outlet": "The White House",
        "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/04/peace-through-strength-operation-epic-fury-crushes-iranian-threat-as-ceasefire-takes-hold/",
        "date": "2026-04-08"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "gasoline-promise-project-47",
    "title": "Renewed gas price promise after prices spiked",
    "quote": "[paraphrase] Gas prices are going to come way down — you're going to see it very soon.",
    "date_promised": "2026-06",
    "venue": "White House remarks on Project 47 energy initiative",
    "deadline_text": null,
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "economy",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "still-waiting",
    "what_happened": "MS NOW noted this was the rare specific, checkable promise Trump almost never makes. Prices went the other way: regular gasoline hit a record $4.15 a gallon over Labor Day weekend 2026, up 30% year over year, and reached $4.29 by mid-September 2026. Trump shifted to framing $3 gas as an acceptable cost of the Iran war.",
    "repeat_count": 3,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump just made the kind of promise he almost never makes",
        "outlet": "MS NOW",
        "url": "https://www.ms.now/news/news-analysis/trump-gas-prices-promise-project-47",
        "date": "2026-06-01"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump promised $2 gas... Now he says $3 gas is the reward for winning the war with Iran",
        "outlet": "Moneywise",
        "url": "https://moneywise.com/news/economy/trump-gas-prices-promises-iran-war-2026",
        "date": "2026-09-08"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "five-thousand-dollar-midterm-dividend",
    "title": "$5,000 dividend checks if Republicans win the midterms",
    "quote": "Here is my promise: If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000.",
    "date_promised": "2026-09-09",
    "venue": "Republican midterm convention, Dallas, Texas",
    "deadline_text": "if Republicans win the midterms",
    "deadline_days": null,
    "category": "economy",
    "era": "term-2",
    "status": "still-waiting",
    "what_happened": "Announced Sept. 9-10, 2026, the pledge drew immediate bipartisan pushback. The payments would cost roughly $1.2 trillion against about $154.5 billion of tariff revenue in the first ten months of fiscal 2026, and they require congressional approval Trump does not control. It repeats the pattern of the unpaid $2,000 tariff dividend and the unpaid $5,000 DOGE dividend before it.",
    "repeat_count": 3,
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Trump promised $5,000 checks if Republicans win the midterms. How would that work?",
        "outlet": "PBS NewsHour",
        "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-promised-5000-checks-if-republicans-win-the-midterms-how-would-that-work",
        "date": "2026-09-11"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump Announces $5,000 Dividend if Republicans Win Midterms",
        "outlet": "TIME",
        "url": "https://time.com/article/2026/09/10/trump-dividend-five-thousand-dollars-midterms-republican-convention/",
        "date": "2026-09-10"
      },
      {
        "title": "Trump's $1 trillion-plus 'dividend' plan meets immediate bipartisan pushback",
        "outlet": "CNBC",
        "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/trump-dividend-midterms-gop.html",
        "date": "2026-09-10"
      }
    ]
  }
]