“Here is my promise: If the Republicans win the House of Representatives and the United States Senate, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000.”
Announced Sept. 9-10, 2026, the pledge drew immediate bipartisan pushback. The payments would cost roughly $1.2 trillion against about $154.5 billion of tariff revenue in the first ten months of fiscal 2026, and they require congressional approval Trump does not control. It repeats the pattern of the unpaid $2,000 tariff dividend and the unpaid $5,000 DOGE dividend before it.
“[paraphrase] Gas prices are going to come way down — you're going to see it very soon.”
· White House remarks on Project 47 energy initiative
· ×3
MS NOW noted this was the rare specific, checkable promise Trump almost never makes. Prices went the other way: regular gasoline hit a record $4.15 a gallon over Labor Day weekend 2026, up 30% year over year, and reached $4.29 by mid-September 2026. Trump shifted to framing $3 gas as an acceptable cost of the Iran war.
“[paraphrase] We have won the war on affordability — prices are down.”
· State of the Union address, U.S. Capitol
· ×6
Groundwork Collaborative called it a 'state of delusion': at the time of the speech groceries, electricity, rent, medical care and tuition were all above January 2025 levels, ACA premiums had jumped about 18% with subsidized out-of-pocket costs up more than 75%, and households faced roughly $1,300 in added annual costs in 2026. Senate Democrats' companion analysis documented higher prices and fewer jobs.
“A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”
· Truth Social post, followed up in remarks the next day
· ×3
Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said payments would start around mid-2026, then pushed it to later in 2026. Ten months on, ABC News reported on September 10, 2026 that no checks had gone out. It would require legislation Congress has not moved, economists put the cost near $450 billion, and after the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs in February 2026 the administration paid out roughly $100 billion in refunds to businesses instead. Prediction markets put the odds of a 2026 dividend at 3%.
“Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country.”
· 'Liberation Day' Rose Garden tariff announcement, White House
· ×20
Manufacturing employment fell every month from April 2025. The Joint Economic Committee found 108,000 manufacturing jobs lost in Trump's first year; BLS data showed 89,000 lost between April 2025 and February 2026 and roughly 75,000 fewer than at inauguration by mid-2026. Construction spending on factories dropped about 30%, from $250 billion annualized in November 2024 to $175 billion by May 2026. Growth was flat from March 2026 onward.
“You're going to see some pretty drastic price reductions.”
· Press conference, Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach, Florida
· ×3
No broad price reductions followed. By the week of Jan. 27, 2025, egg prices were still climbing, and CNN reported that Trump's team had already begun conceding there would be no immediate rollback. Overall consumer prices kept rising through 2025 and 2026; the 2026 State of the Union claim that affordability had been 'won' was contradicted by BLS data showing groceries, electricity and rents all above their January 2025 levels.
PolitiFact's Jan. 20, 2026 one-year review found groceries and clothing each up almost 2% year over year, electricity up nearly 7%, and housing, medical care, tuition and child care all up about 3%. The New York Times found beef up 16.4%, coffee up 19.8% and lettuce up 7.3%, with the largest monthly grocery jump (0.7%) since August 2022. Households were projected to absorb another $1,300 in added costs in 2026, up from $1,000 in 2025.
“[paraphrase] We're going to bring down the price of eggs — the groceries, the eggs, everything.”
· Campaign rallies in the closing week, including Pittsburgh
· ×15
By day seven of the term eggs were more expensive, not cheaper, and prices set records through early 2025 amid avian flu. FactCheck.org documented false administration claims about egg and gas prices in April 2025, and CBS News fact-checked similar claims again in September 2025. Overall grocery prices remained above their January 2025 level through 2026, with the largest monthly grocery jump since August 2022 recorded in the one-year review.
“[paraphrase] We think we can do at least $2 trillion in federal spending cuts through the Department of Government Efficiency.”
· Madison Square Garden rally, New York (Elon Musk pledge Trump adopted and repeated)
· ×10
DOGE never came close. Its 'Wall of Receipts' claimed $110 billion, later $215 billion when the effort wound down; a government watchdog report in August 2026 found the figures rested on estimates that were wrong or unsupported, and third-party analysis could verify only about $35 billion. The promised offshoot of '$5,000 DOGE dividend' checks funded by the savings never happened either.
“We're going to cap it at around 10 percent. We can't let them make 25 percent and 30 percent.”
· Campaign rally, Uniondale, New York (repeated Erie, Pa., Sept. 29, 2024)
· ×8
Nothing happened for a year. On Jan. 12, 2026 Trump posted that 'Effective January 20, 2026, I... am calling for a one year cap on Credit Card Interest Rates of 10%,' but a president cannot set rates unilaterally. Speaker Mike Johnson said the next day it could have 'negative secondary effects,' the Hawley-Sanders bill remained stuck in committee as of February 2026, and Sen. Warren opened an inquiry into regulators' lack of progress. Meanwhile credit card debt hit a record $1.23 trillion and CFPB rollbacks cost families an estimated $18 billion in 2025.
Gas never approached $2. PolitiFact rated the promise Stalled at the one-year mark. After the U.S.-Iran war began Feb. 28, 2026, pump prices spiked: gasoline jumped 21.2% in a single month in March 2026, hit a record $4.15 a gallon over Labor Day 2026 (up 30% year over year), and reached $4.29 by mid-September 2026. Trump reframed $3 gas as a reasonable price to pay for the Iran war.
“[paraphrase] We will cut the cost of a new home in half.”
· Economic Club of New York
· ×4
No halving of housing costs occurred. PolitiFact's one-year review found housing costs up about 3% year over year. The administration's 2026 housing package was described by Fortune as a 'big yawn' that did little for affordability, and mortgage costs rose again after the Iran war began in late February 2026.
“We will drive down the rates so you will be able to pay 2 percent again.”
· Campaign rally, Tucson, Arizona
· ×6
Thirty-year mortgage rates never came close to 2%. After a dip driven by directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds, rates backed up again once the Iran war started: 10-year Treasury yields topped 4.7% and 30-year mortgages sat at 6.66% in 2026 — roughly where they stood when Trump returned to office nearly two years earlier.
“We will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months.”
· Campaign rally, Asheville, North Carolina (repeated in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., Aug. 17, 2024: 'We're going to get your energy prices down by 50%')
· ×12
PolitiFact rated this Promise Broken on Jan. 20, 2026: gasoline fell modestly in year one but electricity and natural gas prices rose. A Guardian analysis found average household electricity bills up 6.7% in 2025, about $116 more per household, and PolitiFact's one-year check found electricity almost 7% higher year over year. Protect Borrowers reported utility costs up 35% overall with 14 million Americans severely behind on utility debt.
“Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again.”
· Campaign rally, Bozeman, Montana (repeated at Waunakee, Wisconsin, Oct. 1, 2024 and dozens of other rallies)
· ×25
Deadline Aug 10, 2024 · 2 years, 1 month overdue
Within a month of taking office the White House was already walking the pledge back; by February 2025 Trump publicly abandoned the idea of an immediate rollback in prices. Inflation reaccelerated after the April 2025 'Liberation Day' tariffs, reaching roughly 3% in 2025, and the Senate Joint Economic Committee and outside analysts estimated households paid about $2,120 more in 2025 because of it. In his 2026 State of the Union Trump claimed he had 'won' on affordability while grocery, electricity, housing and medical prices all remained above January 2025 levels.
“[paraphrase] We're going to pay off the national debt — and we'll do it fairly quickly.”
· Campaign interviews and rallies (a pledge he first made in 2016 and revived in 2024)
· ×8
The debt rose about $2.25 trillion in Trump's first year back in office ($2.29 trillion over calendar 2025) and is now approaching $50 trillion. Steve Rattner's July 2026 analysis found the deficit up from $1.8 trillion at inauguration to $1.9 trillion, above 6% of GDP versus 3.4% in 2017, with debt over 100% of GDP and on track to pass the 1946 record of 106% around 2030. Investor Jason Calacanis called Trump the 'worst-spending president in history.'
“I WILL BRING THE COST OF EVERYTHING WAY DOWN. I WILL BREAK THE INFLATION NIGHTMARE!!!”
· Truth Social post
· ×40
Costs rose across the categories families feel most. Sen. Warren's January 2026 report and Protect Borrowers documented groceries, utilities, health care and college all more expensive; utility costs rose 35% with 14 million Americans severely behind on utility debt; credit card debt hit a record $1.23 trillion with delinquencies near Great Recession levels. Households paid an estimated $2,120 more in 2025 alone.
“[paraphrase] We will create jobs like you have never seen — the greatest economy in the history of our country.”
· Republican National Convention acceptance speech, Milwaukee
· ×25
Job creation slowed sharply. Reuters data cited by Senate Democrats showed average monthly job gains falling roughly two-thirds, from about 168,000 a month in Biden's final year to about 49,000 a month in Trump's first year, with manufacturing shedding 108,000 jobs. Consumer confidence fell for five consecutive months after the April 2025 tariffs, and a WSJ poll showed a 15-point gap in negative economy ratings.
“[paraphrase] We will cut the federal budget every year of my presidency.”
· Agenda 47 policy platform / campaign video
· ×4
Federal spending and deficits both rose. The deficit grew from $1.8 trillion at inauguration to about $1.9 trillion by mid-2026, and the Treasury reported surging monthly deficits through fiscal 2026. Total federal outlays increased, driven by the 2025 tax law, higher interest costs and military operations in Iran and Venezuela. PolitiFact moved this between 'Compromise' and 'In the Works' but never to Kept.
“[paraphrase] The $600 payments are ridiculously low. Congress must raise them to $2,000 — the House votes Monday and the Senate will start the process.”
· Video statement posted to Twitter, repeated in his December 27 signing statement
· ×2
Deadline Dec 25, 2020 · 5 years, 8 months overdue
His six-day delay in signing lapsed unemployment benefits for millions. He signed on December 27, 2020. The House did pass the $2,000 increase on December 28 by 275-134, but Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell blocked a standalone vote and the increase died. Americans received $600, not $2,000.
“I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business.”
· Twitter
· ×2
Deadline Oct 7, 2020 · 5 years, 11 months overdue
The tweet killed relief talks and the Dow fell 376 points that day. Trump reversed within about 24 hours and began demanding piecemeal relief, but nothing passed before the election, and he lost. No further relief became law until the $900 billion package Congress approved on December 21, 2020, more than eleven weeks later.
“[paraphrase] The IRS will ensure that within two weeks the first money will be in people's accounts.”
· White House briefing announcing the $1.2 trillion stimulus proposal (Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, alongside Trump)
· ×2
The CARES Act was not signed until March 27, 2020. On March 29 Mnuchin revised the estimate to 'within three weeks.' The first roughly 60 million direct deposits landed around the week of April 13 — about four weeks after the promise — and paper checks began going out the week of May 4 at roughly 5 million a week, with an internal memo warning some Americans might wait until August.
“We're going to make an announcement in two weeks. It's going to be good.”
· Interview with The New York Times, asked his position on the Davis-Bacon Act
Deadline Apr 19, 2017 · 9 years, 5 months overdue
Two months later Bloomberg reported that 'the Trump administration has made no announcement on the Davis-Bacon law.' No announcement was ever made, and prevailing-wage rules on federally funded construction were left untouched for the rest of the term.
Carrier received up to $7 million in Indiana incentives to keep about 1,070 positions, roughly 300 of which were office jobs never slated to move. The company proceeded with moving its fan coil lines to Monterrey, Mexico, laying off about 340 workers in July 2017 and about 215 more in January 2018, roughly 500 jobs in total.
“On the first day of my term of office, my administration will immediately pursue the following six measures to clean up the corruption and special interest collusion in Washington, DC.”
· Gettysburg, Pennsylvania speech releasing the written 'Contract with the American Voter'
· ×18
Deadline Oct 23, 2016 · 9 years, 10 months overdue
Mostly late or never. The federal hiring freeze and TPP withdrawal were signed on day four, January 23, 2017, not day one. The constitutional amendment imposing congressional term limits was never proposed. China was not labelled a currency manipulator on day one; the administration reversed that pledge in April 2017, briefly applied the label in August 2019 and removed it in January 2020. Sanctuary-city defunding was ordered but repeatedly blocked in court.
“[paraphrase] AT&T's purchase of Time Warner is too much concentration of power; my administration will not approve it.”
· "Contract with the American Voter" speech, Gettysburg, Pennsylvania
· ×3
The Justice Department sued to stop the merger in November 2017 and lost in district court in June 2018. The D.C. Circuit affirmed in February 2019 and the deal closed. PolitiFact rated the promise broken.
“[paraphrase] We will go through the budget of every department and eliminate wasteful spending.”
· "Contract with the American Voter," Gettysburg, Pennsylvania
· ×3
A March 2017 executive order directed a government reorganization plan; the resulting June 2018 proposal required congressional action that never came. PolitiFact rated the promise broken, noting the president cannot unilaterally reorganize every department.
“[paraphrase] A requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated, and a temporary moratorium on new regulations.”
· "Contract with the American Voter," Gettysburg, Pennsylvania
· ×6
Deadline Oct 23, 2016 · 9 years, 10 months overdue
A January 20, 2017 memo froze pending rules and Executive Order 13771 of January 30, 2017 imposed the two-for-one requirement, but no blanket moratorium on new regulations was maintained and agencies continued issuing rules. PolitiFact rated the promise a compromise, finding Trump essentially held the line.
“We're bringing it from 1 percent up to 4 percent. And I actually think we can go higher than 4 percent. I think you can go to 5 percent or 6 percent.”
· Economic Club of New York speech
· ×30
Annual real GDP growth peaked at 2.9 percent in 2018, matching the best year of Obama's second term, and never reached 3 percent in any calendar year. Real GDP fell 2.2 percent in 2020 during the pandemic recession, the largest drop since the Great Recession.
“I am going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created... we will produce 25 million jobs over 10 years.”
· Economic Club of New York speech (jobs boast from June 16, 2015 launch)
· ×10
The United States finished Trump's term with a net loss of about 2.7 million jobs, the first net job loss under any president since records began in 1939. Even before the pandemic, job growth from January 2017 to February 2020 trailed the pace of Obama's second term.
“[paraphrase] Cut 1 percent of non-defense discretionary spending every year.”
· Campaign economic plan
· ×4
Federal spending rose in every year of the term. Trump signed budget deals in 2018 and 2019 that raised discretionary spending caps, and fiscal 2020 outlays reached $6.55 trillion. PolitiFact rated the promise broken, finding Trump abandoned the pledge.
“[paraphrase] I am going to be the greatest champion working people have ever had in the White House.”
· Republican National Convention acceptance speech, Cleveland
· ×20
The administration rescinded the Obama-era overtime rule expansion and issued a narrower version in 2019, narrowed the joint-employer standard, and rolled back workplace safety and tip-pooling protections. The American Prospect listed the worker-protection record among the broken promises.
“[paraphrase] We're going to bring back manufacturing and the factories that left.”
· Speech at Alumisource, Monessen, Pennsylvania
· ×50
Manufacturing employment ended the term down about 178,000 jobs, according to FactCheck.org. The sector entered a technical recession in 2019, contracting for consecutive quarters before the pandemic. PolitiFact rated the promise broken in July 2020, finding no overall improvement for the sector.
No 35 percent tariff on offshoring companies was imposed, and the End the Offshoring Act promised in the Gettysburg contract was never introduced. Labor Department data on trade-related layoffs showed offshoring continued, including by companies Trump had singled out.
“[paraphrase] We can balance the budget fairly quickly.”
· Campaign interviews
· ×8
The deficit grew every year of the term, from $585 billion in fiscal 2016 to $984 billion in fiscal 2019 and $3.1 trillion in fiscal 2020. PolitiFact rated the promise broken, noting the deficit was growing rather than shrinking.
“[On paying off the $19 trillion national debt] Over a period of eight years.”
· Interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa, The Washington Post
· ×5
Debt rose throughout the term. FactCheck.org calculated that federal debt held by the public rose 50 percent under Trump, from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion, and the fiscal 2020 deficit reached $3.1 trillion. Gross national debt went from roughly $19 trillion to about $27.75 trillion by January 2021.